Overconfidence and risk preference among professional and non-professional investors. A study of the phenomena with the trial to find the relationship between them.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14659/PJOEP.2013.04.02Keywords:
inwestor profesjonalny, doświadczenie, nadmierna pewność siebie, miskalibracja, stosunek do ryzykaAbstract
The aim of this experimental study was to determine the extent of experiencing excessive self-confidence and the attitude towards risk, based on the knowledge and experience of operating on the capital market, as well as the influence of selfconfidence on investors’ attitude towards risk. Attention was focused on one type of overconfidence – miscalibration. The results do not confirm that investors with more knowledge and experience in financial markets have a stronger tendency toward over-precision. However, these investors show a higher disposition towards risk. Another observation is that higher self-estimation of skills has a positive impact on the willingness to take risk. Nevertheless, there is no evidence of a clear positive correlation between the tendency to take risks and overconfidence.
References
Alpert, M., Raiffa, H . (1982). A Progress Report on The Training of Probability Assessors. W: D. Kahneman, P.
Slovic, A. Tversky (red.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (s. 294-305). New York: CambridgeUniversity Press.
Barber, B., O dean, T. (1999). The Courage of Misguided Convictions. Financial Analysts’ Journal, 55(6), 41-55.
Barber, B., O dean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Y our Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Journal of Finance, 55, 773-806.
Barberis, N ., Thaler, R. (2003). A Survey of Behavioral Finance. W: G . Constantinedes, M. Harris, R. Shulz (red.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, vol. 1B, Financial Markets and Assets Pricing (s.1051-1121). North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Barber, B.M., O dean T., (2011). The Behaviour of Individual Investors, SSRN eLibrary.
Biais, B., H ilton, D., Mazurier, K., Pouget, S. (2005). Judgemental Overconfidence, Self -Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market. Review of Economic Studies, 72(2), 287-312.
Christensen-Szalanski, J., Bushyhead, J. (1981). Physicians’ Use of Probabilistic Information in Real Clinical Setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 7, 928-935.
Czerwonka M., G orlewski B. (2008). Finanse behawioralne. Warszawa: Szkoła G łówna H andlowa w Warszawie, s. 27-28.
De Bondt, W.F.M., Thaler, R.H. (1995). Financial Decision Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective.
W: R.A. Jarrow, V. Maksimovic, W.T. Ziemba (red.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Sciences (s.385-410), t. 9, Finance.
Dorn, D., Huberman, G . (2005). Talk and Action: What Individual Investors Say and What They Do. Review of Finance, 9, 437-481.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., L ichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with Certainity: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 522-564.
Glaser, M., Weber, M. (2007). Overconfidence and trading volume. The GENEVA Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), 1-36.
Goetzmann, W. N ., Kumar, A. (2008). Equity Portfolio Diversification. Review of Finance, 12, 433–463.
Graham, J.R., H arvey, C.R., H uang, H . (2009). Investor Competence, Trading Frequency, and Home Bias. Management Science, 55, 1094-1106.
Holt, C.A., L aury, S.K. (2002). Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects. The American Economic Review, 92, 1644-1655.
Johnson, B.B. (2004). Risk, comparisons, conflict, and risk acceptability claims. Risk Analysis, 24(1), 131.
Keren, G . (1991). Calibration and Probability Judgments: Conceptual and Methodological Issues. Acta Psychologica, 77, 217-273.
Kostolany, A. (1999). Psychologia giełdy. Wrocław: Wydawnictwo EUROPA, s. 17.
Kubińska, E. (2012). Psychologiczne miary ryzyka inwestycyjnego. Zeszyty Naukowe Polskiego Towarzystwa Ekonomicznego, 13, 239-247.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2013). Wpływ nadmiernej pewności siebie na ryzyko portfela inwestycyjnego. W: A.S. Barczak, P. Tworek (red.), Zastosowanie metod ilościowych w zarządzaniu ryzykiem w działalności inwestycyjnej.Katowice: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł., Tyszka, T. (2012). Disposition Effect Among Contrarian and Momentum Investors. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 13(3), 214-225. doi: 10.1080/15427560.2012.708687
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2008). Analiza decyzji inwestycyjnych uczestników gry giełdowej – skłonności wirtualnych inwestorów, inwestujących wirtualne środki. Decyzje, 9, 57-82.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2009). Punkty odniesienia szerszej skali konta mentalnego uczestników gry giełdowej. Decyzje, 12, 79-95.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2012a). Pomiar ryzyka jako wyzwanie dla współczesnych finansów. Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, Sectio H Oeconomia, 46(1), 75-83.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2012b). Różne podejścia do mierzenia ryzyka inwestycyjnego – perspektywa psychologiczna i finansowa. Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie: Seria Finanse, 889, 49-62.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2012c). Strategie prognostyczne a preferencja ryzyka u inwestorów giełdowych. Psychologia Ekonomiczna, 1, 40-56.
Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2013b, w druku). Racjonalność postępowania inwestorów giełdowych. W: J. Czekaj (red.), Efektywność polskiego rynku akcji z perspektywy dwudziestolecia. Kraków: Oficyna UEK.
Langer, E. (1975). Illusion of Control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311-328.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do Those Who Know More Also Know More About H ow Much They Know? Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 20(2),159-183.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., Phillips, L . (1982). Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980. W: D.Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky (red.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (s.305-334). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Markiewicz, Ł., Weber, E. U. (2013). DOSPERT’s Gambling Risk-Taking Propensity Scale Predicts Excessive Stock Trading. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 14(1), 65-78. doi: 10.1080/15427560.2013.762000.
Montgomery, H . (1997). Naturalistic decision making. Materiały konferencyjne. Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making. Mannheim.
Moore, Don A., Healy, P. J. (2007). The Trouble with Overconfidence. Tepper School of Business. Paper 341.
Nofsinger, J.R. (2006). Psychologia inwestowania. Gliwice: Helion, Wyd. II, s. 36-43.
Nosic, A., Weber, M. (2010). How Riskily Do I Invest? The Role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions, and Overconfidence. Decision Analysis, 7(3), 282-301. doi: 10.1287/deca.1100.0178
Oberlechner, T., O sler, C. L . (2008). Overconfidence in Currency Markets. SSRN eLibrary.
Odean, T. (1998). Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are above Average. The Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1887-1934.
Odean, T. (1999). Do Investors Trade Too Much? American Economic Review, 89(5), 1279-1298.
Olsen R. (1997). Investment Risk: The Experts’ Perspective. Financial Analysts’ Journal, 53(2), 62-66.
Oskamp, S. (1962). The relationship of Clinical Experience and Training Methods to Several Criteria of Clinical Prediction. Psichological Monographs, 547/76.
Oskamp, S. (1965). Overcofindence in Case-Study Judgments. The Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261-265.
Oskamp, S. (1982). Overconfidence in Case-study Judgments. W: D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky (red.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (s.287-293). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19 (3), 425-442.
Shefrin, H ., Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral portfolio theory. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35,127-152.
Shiller, R.J. (2001). Irrational exuberance. Princeton: Princeton University Press, s. 142.
Sieber, J. (1974). Effects on Decision Importance on Ability to Generate Warranted Subjective Uncertainity. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 30, 688-694.
Slovic, P. (1962). Convergent validation of risk-taking measures. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 65, 68-71.
Stael von Holstein, C.A.S. (1972). Probability Forecasting: An Experiment Related to the Stock Market. Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 8, 139-158.
Stickland, L ., L ewicki, R., Katz, A. (1966). Temporal Orientation and Perceived Control as Determinants of Risk-Taking. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2, 143-151.
Svenson, O . (1981), Are We All L ess Risky and More Skillful than our Fellow Drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47, 143-148.
Szyszka, A. (2009). Finanse behawioralne. Nowe podejście do inwestowania na rynku kapitałowym. Poznań: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, s. 8, 16, 48-50, 232.
Taft, R. (1955). The Ability to Judge People. Psychological Bulletin, 52, 1-23.
Tarczyński, W. (1996). Analiza portfelowa na giełdzie papierów wartościowych. Szczecin: Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, s.104-106.
Tyszka, T. (2010). Decyzje. Perspektywa psychologiczna i ekonomiczna. W: J. Brzeziński, Wykłady z psychologii (16, s. 299-327). Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe SCHOLAR.
Tyszka, T., Domurat, A. (2004). Czy istnieje ogólna skłonność jednostki do ryzyka? Decyzje, 2, 85-104.
Tyszka, T., Zaleśkiewicz, T. (2001). Racjonalność decyzji. Pewność a ryzyko. Warszawa: PWE, s. 240.
Tyszka, T., Zielonka, P. (2002). Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 3(3), 152-160.
Weber, E.U., Blais, A.R., Betz, N .E. (2002). A domain-specific risk-attitude scale: Measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15, 263-290.
Weinstein, N . (1980). Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806-820.
Von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O . (1947). Theory of games and economic behaviour. New York: Princeton University Press Princeton.
Yates, J.F. (1990). Judgment and Decision Making. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Zaleśkiewicz, T. (2003). Psychologia inwestora giełdowego. Wprowadzenie do behawioralnych finansów. Gdańsk: Gdańskie Wydawnictwo Psychologiczne, s. 10, 14, 24-36.
Zielonka, P. (2006). Behawioralne aspekty inwestowania na rynku papierów wartościowych. Warszawa: CeDeWu. Pl, s. 51-52.
Zielonka P. (2011). Giełda i psychologia. Behawioralne aspekty inwestowania na rynku papierów wartościowych, Wyd. III rozszerzone, Warszawa: CeDeWu.Pl, s. 27-30,52-53.
Downloads
Issue
Section
License
Authorship
The Author (Co-authors) declares that the submitted paper does not infringe on the third parties’ copyright, consents to submitting the paper to the reviewing procedure and introducing editorial changes in it, and conveys proprietary copyright to the paper free of charge to publisher for uses stipulated in paragraph 50 of the Polish Bill on Copyright and Related Rights of 4.02.1994, provided that the paper has been accepted for publication and published.
Conditions of use
The Publisher owns the proprietary copyright to all materials published in the journal. Articles are made available on the basis of non-exclusive Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 licence. The full text of the licence can be found at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/legalcode, and its accessible summary a thttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/deed.en.
Posting the text in the repository, on the author’s homepage or other website is permitted on condition that it does not entail gaining material benefits and the text is equipped with full source documentation (including the title, volume, issue and internet address of the journal).
All those interested in using the materials published in the journal for commercial purposes are kindly requested to contact the Editors.