Iluzja kontroli oraz przeciążenie informacyjne w świetle wnioskowania bayesowskiego
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15678/PJOEP.2017.12.01Keywords:
nadmierna pewność siebie, iluzja kontroli, przeciążenie informacyjne, wnioskowanie bayesowskieAbstract
W artykule za pomocą wnioskowania bayesowskiego została zweryfikowana hipoteza mówiąca o tym, że przeciążenie informacyjne zwiększa iluzję kontroli. Wnioskowanie bayesowskie jest uważane za racjonalny model, w ramach którego jednostki oceniają swój własny wpływ na proces generujący wyniki. W artykule weryfikujemy bayesowski model przetwarzania informacji poprzez zastosowanie różnych parametrów. Przeciążenie informacyjne zostało zoperacjonalizowane poprzez wprowadzenie niepewności co do funkcji i wartości parametrów procesu generującego wyniki.
References
Alloy, L. B., Abramson, L. Y. (1979). Judgment of Contingency in Depressed and Nondepressed Students: Sadder but Wiser? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 108, 441–485. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-3445.108.4.441.
Black F. (1986). Noise. Journal of Finance, 41, 529–543. https://doi.org/10.2307/2328481.
Chewning, E. Jr, Harrell, A. M. (1990). The Effect of Information Load on Decision Makers’ Cue Utilization Levels and Decision Quality in a Financial Distress Decision Task, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 15(6), 527–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0361-3682(90)90033-q.
Czupryna, M., Kubińska, E., Markiewicz, Ł. (2018). Can Conjugate Prior Probability Explain the Illusion of Control?, submitted to Decyzje (in print).
Evans, J., Stanovich, K. E. (2013). Dual-process Theories of Higher Cognition: Advancing the Debate. Perspectives on Psychological Science 8, 223–241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612460685.
Fenton-O’Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., Soane, E., Willman, P. (2003). Trading on Illusions: Unrealistic Perceptions of Control and Trading Performance. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 76(1), 53–68. https://doi.org/10.1348/096317903321208880.
Gino, F., Sharek, Z., Moore, D. A. (2011). Keeping the Illusion of Control under Control: Ceilings, Floors, and Imperfect Calibration, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 114(2), 104–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2010.10.002.
Kubińska, E., Czupryna, M., Markiewicz, Ł., Czekaj, J. (2018), Technical Analysis Gives You Courage, but Not Money – on the Relationship between Technical Analysis Usage, Overconfidence and Investment Performance, Argumenta Oeconomica, 40, 317–344.
Langer, E. J. (1975). The Illusion of Control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311–328. https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.32.2.311.
Millisecond Software (2015). Inquisit 4, https://www.millisecond.com.
Neys, W. D. (2006). Dual Processing in Reasoning: Two Systems but One Reasoner. Psychological Science, 17(5), 428–433. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01723.x.
Raiffa, H., Schlaifer, R. (1961). Applied Statistical Decision Theory. Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University.
R Core Team (2016). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. https://www.R-project.org/.
Turner, B. M., Van Zandt, T. (2012). A Tutorial on Approximate Bayesian Computation. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 56(2), 69–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2012.02.005.
Schick, A. G., Gorden, L. A., Haka, S. (1990). Information Overload: A Temporal Approach. Accounting Organizations and Society, 15, 199–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/0361-3682(90)90005-f
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authorship
The Author (Co-authors) declares that the submitted paper does not infringe on the third parties’ copyright, consents to submitting the paper to the reviewing procedure and introducing editorial changes in it, and conveys proprietary copyright to the paper free of charge to publisher for uses stipulated in paragraph 50 of the Polish Bill on Copyright and Related Rights of 4.02.1994, provided that the paper has been accepted for publication and published.
Conditions of use
The Publisher owns the proprietary copyright to all materials published in the journal. Articles are made available on the basis of non-exclusive Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 licence. The full text of the licence can be found at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/legalcode, and its accessible summary a thttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/deed.en.
Posting the text in the repository, on the author’s homepage or other website is permitted on condition that it does not entail gaining material benefits and the text is equipped with full source documentation (including the title, volume, issue and internet address of the journal).
All those interested in using the materials published in the journal for commercial purposes are kindly requested to contact the Editors.
